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Oil Volatility – Part 1

February 4, 2015

Oil demand and supply imbalance created volatility in oil price. This was mainly due to increase in supply side. When supply increases, the prices goes down. The question comes how much. The  cost for US oil producers is $40 – $45 while cost for middle east oil producers is $10 – $20. Price required for oil producers to make profit is $50 – $55.

In my opinion, before prices were driven by OPEC (middle east cartel) which now prices will be driven by US oil producers. Since there required price is higher than middle east oil producers. US oil producers does not have any cartel rather they work in and as open market concept where market decides the price.
At here implicit price required by US producers is $50 – $55.
Validation of my theory or understanding is drop in rigs started when the oil price was around $55.
In short run, the oil price will remain in the range $50-$60. If US makes cartel, the story will change again. Otherwise, with current scenario,  I see oil to stay within range. Let me put it in another way, oil entry point is $50 and exit point is $60.

The symbols where oil is the driver are SU, UWTI, LEG.TO, LRE. TO, LTS. TO and XOM

By Gulshan Malhotra

Favorite Stock (Kinross Gold Corp.; KGC and K)

November 23, 2014

This time Kinross is a pick (listed in NYSE with ticker KGC and listed in TSX with ticker K) based on the favorite stock calculation. The favorite stock calculation is based on blend of technical as well as fundamental analysis. Again, our goal is to pick a stock which has less risk and more reward. The pick is for long term investment. The overall rating of the stock is based on ten criteria. The detail of these criteria is available on the page “Favorite Stock”.

Please follow the link below to read the complete analysis.

http://analysistime.com/favorite-stock-2/favorite-stock-2-2/

Gulshan Malhotra

 

 

Favorite Stock (TideWater Inc.; TDW)

April 21, 2014

The new page “Favorite Stock” is introduced to the website. The page will have detailed technical as well as fundamental analysis. Again, our goal is pick a stock which has less risk and more reward. The pick is for long term investment. The overall rating of the stock is based on the ten criteria. The detail of these criteria is available on the page “Favorite Stock”.

My first pick is “TideWater Inc.”. TideWater is listed in NYSE with a symbol of TDW.

Please follow the link below to read the complete analysis.

http://analysistime.com/favorite-stock/

Gulshan Malhotra

 

 

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