Skip to content

Favorite Stock (TideWater Inc.; TDW)

April 21, 2014

The new page “Favorite Stock” is introduced to the website. The page will have detailed technical as well as fundamental analysis. Again, our goal is pick a stock which has less risk and more reward. The pick is for long term investment. The overall rating of the stock is based on the ten criteria. The detail of these criteria is available on the page “Favorite Stock”.

My first pick is “TideWater Inc.”. TideWater is listed in NYSE with a symbol of TDW.

Please follow the link below to read the complete analysis.

http://analysistime.com/favorite-stock/

Gulshan Malhotra

 

 

Sherritt Investment is good on Risk / Reward basis

December 2, 2013

By Gulshan Malhotra

In this article, I will be exploring the various elements and aspects of investment in Sherritt International corp.(Dow Jones ticker “SHERF” and TSX ticker “S”). I have been active in monitoring the sharritt from last one year. Opportunities are much more higher compared to the risk involve.

Technical Analysis

Current Price

3.29

52 weeks high

6.24

5 years high

10.04

52 weeks low

3.11

5 years low

1.35

Low

Mid

High

Ranges (Based on 5 years)

1.35

4.25

7.14

4.25

7.14

10.04

Mean

2.80

5.69

8.59

Low

Mid

High

Ranges (Based on 52 weeks)

3.11

4.15

5.20

4.15

5.20

6.24

Mean

3.63

4.68

5.72

Table 1: SHERF price ranges of 52 weeks / 5 years

The current price of SHERF $3.29 as on Nov 29, 2013. Its 52 weeks high is $6.24 and 5 year high is $10.04. SHERF low price in 52 weeks is $3.11 and in 5 years is $1.35. The description below further highlights the facts.

Expected gain vs loss analysis
Estimated Investment

1,000

# of Shares Purchased

304

Ranges
(Based on 5 years)
Mkt value (Based on Mean (Mid))

1,731

Expected Gain (Loss) $

731

73%

Based on mean of 5 years the expected gain is 73%
Ranges
(Based on 52 weeks)
Mkt value (Based on Mean (Mid))

1,421

Expected Gain (Loss) $

421

42%

Based on mean of 52 weeks the expected gain is 42%

Table 2: SHERF Gain / Loss based on mean of High / Low prices

For example, If we invest $1,000 in the stock of SHERF with the assumption of investing for long-term, the mean of price of 5 years low and high is $5.69. If our sale price is $5.69 , the gain will be 74%. In the same way the gain will be 43% if our selling price is mean of 52 weeks high / low price.

Ranges
(Based on 5 years)
Maximum Loss

-$590.27

-59%

Maximum Gain

$1,611.35

93%

Based on 5 years High / low the expected maximum gain is 93% and expected maximum loss is -59%
Ranges
(Based on 52 weeks)
Maximum Loss

-$54.71

-5%

Maximum Gain

$896.66

90%

Based on 52 weeks High / low the expected maximum gain is 90% and expected maximum loss is -5%

Table 3: SHERF Maximum Gain / Loss based on High / Low prices

In another example, we can determine maximum gain based on 5 years high price and maximum low based on 5 years low price. In other words, we take 5 years / 52 weeks high / low and enumerate the maximum gain and loss. The assumption here is that the prices of the stock will be volatile within the historical ranges. This will give us quantification of maximum exposure to risk and reward. Based on 5 years high / low, the maximum gain will be 93% and maximum loss will be 59%. Based on 52 weeks high / low, the maximum gain will be 91% and maximum loss will be 5%.

Fundamental Analysis

Sherritt runs its business in four segments which are Metal , Coal, Oil and Gas and Power. Based on the their 2013.Q3 financial, all the segments are generating positive return on assets except the metal segment.

Metal segment is behind in earning compare to prior year primarily due to nickel and fertilizer prices. The price of nickel and fertilizer are down since whole basic material sector is not doing well. I considered this as a temporary issue. Another problem Sherritt metal sector is facing is the Ambatovy project in Madagascar. This project is exposed to political risk as well as operational risk. In worst scenario, this project will not be recovered from its problem. The maximum loss associated to Ambatory project is $7.14 ($5.3B [project costs] / 296.9M [outstanding shares]). Sherritt book value is $9.46. The book value after writing off Ambatovy will be $2.32. The current price is $3.27, maximum risk involve is $0.95 (29%). The maximum return can be $6.19 (189%)

Insider Trading Report

As per the chart below, which shows the insider trading of the Sherritt. it shows that In the last one year there is no sale of stocks by insiders rather there is a purchase of $900k by insiders which also support my analysis.

Conclusion

I think market is reacting very pessimistic on Amatovy project. Sherritt price is discounted for the problems company’s metal segment is facing is more than it should be. This all is creating an opportunity for the investors. I think to go long on the sherritt can give a return of around 50% in a year.

Alcoa: Aluminum Prices Are Still Key, But Watching Some Positives

October 25, 2013

Alcoa: Aluminum Prices Are Still Key, But Watching Some Positives http://seekingalpha.com/article/1745102?source=ansh $AA

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 113 other followers

%d bloggers like this: